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Dec 28, 2012
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if you take germany, why did they change their minds? obviously, there were safety concerns, but more importantly, it was to do with the ballot box. there was quite a lot of opposition from the public in germany, people out on the streets protesting against nuclear. at the end of the day, the politicians decided to take what i consider to be a political path rather than an economic one. >> i don't think we would describe it as positively rosy just yet. we're saying that the storm clouds are lifting. but as you're hinting, there are still some big question marks about economic growth in 2013, particularly in the euro area where we're not expecting very much more than a flat economy at best. gdp growth is only a small part of the story. a lot depends on what's priced in to begin with. how the news flow compares with those expectations. underlying levels of valuations flow into funds. we think that looking at things in the round, even though there isn't much growth in europe, we're expecting european stock markets to do quite well again. >>
if you take germany, why did they change their minds? obviously, there were safety concerns, but more importantly, it was to do with the ballot box. there was quite a lot of opposition from the public in germany, people out on the streets protesting against nuclear. at the end of the day, the politicians decided to take what i consider to be a political path rather than an economic one. >> i don't think we would describe it as positively rosy just yet. we're saying that the storm clouds...
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Dec 11, 2012
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for instance, germany is looking pretty pessimistic. based on its lack of export performance to places like china. >> yeah. when the bundes bank came out and shortly downgraded forecasts, how is the employment picture? if you've got a relatively healthy china and the u.s. consumer bounce back, wouldn't that help germany? >> it certainly would. germany is relatively flat in terms of the employment outlook. so it's not a disaster. but germany trades an awful lot with europe as well as china. so it needs china to pick up in terms of its heavy engineering export performance, creating jobs in the manufacturing sector. but germany and the uk need europe to improve. >> it comes at an inkrd eblly high cost in terms of the number of people out of work. what has been done? how much have we destroyed so that the jobs outlook and growth prospect in this country? >> well, what growth prospect in the southern european countries? we're seeing definitive bifurcation of northern europe and southern europe. southern europe, we are creating an underclass
for instance, germany is looking pretty pessimistic. based on its lack of export performance to places like china. >> yeah. when the bundes bank came out and shortly downgraded forecasts, how is the employment picture? if you've got a relatively healthy china and the u.s. consumer bounce back, wouldn't that help germany? >> it certainly would. germany is relatively flat in terms of the employment outlook. so it's not a disaster. but germany trades an awful lot with europe as well as...
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Dec 31, 2012
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germany, switzerland, germany and austria. for the bourses that are open, we can take a look at performance this morning and then we'll take a look over at the bond wall. the ftse 100 is down about .4%. ibex down .5%. not a clear picture. definitely mixed trade as people look to close out the year. the bond wall gives the sense for what kind of wall dominates. we're seeing bond yields move higher. investors are exiting the asset class today. italy around the 4.5% level. we've seen these predominant for several weeks and likely a quick check on forrus. the yen, an important one to keep an eye on, as well. dollar/yen firmer, continuing the patterns that we've seen over the last couple of trading sessions. for more on what to expect from markets today, we're joined by chris meyer, managing director and chief strategist from loop capital markets. chris, good morning. we wake up without a deal. what does that mean? what are you watching today? >> good morning, kelly. the thing i'm watching most specifically is the vix. i think the
germany, switzerland, germany and austria. for the bourses that are open, we can take a look at performance this morning and then we'll take a look over at the bond wall. the ftse 100 is down about .4%. ibex down .5%. not a clear picture. definitely mixed trade as people look to close out the year. the bond wall gives the sense for what kind of wall dominates. we're seeing bond yields move higher. investors are exiting the asset class today. italy around the 4.5% level. we've seen these...
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Dec 7, 2012
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doing great in germany. let's not forget that. and i have to say, i think the bundesbank is overegging it a bit here on the negative side as is the ecb. very dramatic swing round in those gdp projections. >> the surveys have been very dramatic. surveys are pretty grim. >> one of my favorite charts at the moment compares germ man industrial production with the german purchasing managers. purchasing managers sags and disappears and production has a very brief dip and then recovers quite nicely. i think people get all the bad media and they kind of think the form a bit biased. >> a production numbers for you are much more important. >> production numbers are giving you a much clearer story for sure. >> so bear in mind, it doesn't really matter whether you get a santa rally because if you were engaged from the beginning of the year, you would take the gains that we've had. >> obviously you've done very, very nicely. we're certainly weighted toward the dax it's clear. >> so what happens to earnings? i'm interested, you know, to earning
doing great in germany. let's not forget that. and i have to say, i think the bundesbank is overegging it a bit here on the negative side as is the ecb. very dramatic swing round in those gdp projections. >> the surveys have been very dramatic. surveys are pretty grim. >> one of my favorite charts at the moment compares germ man industrial production with the german purchasing managers. purchasing managers sags and disappears and production has a very brief dip and then recovers...
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Dec 19, 2012
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in germany what you see is a reaction from the euro. we've been trading actually fairly strong all morning. 1.30 to 2.47. it was 1.32 42 before the numbers hit the wires. we have quite a bit of support for the euro because of the s.a.p. upgrade on greece and the situation over there. we'll see also the way the market is reacting. let's have a quick look at what the dax is doing. it's been perky, up 0.15%. trading toward the 7,665 level. >> patricia, this comes at a time when people have been focusing on the strength of the euro. as we're over the 1.32 level you mentioned, certainly member countries would like to see a weaker currency. but as long as the surveys hold consistent with strength in the german economy, we're not likely to see that weakening. >> no. absolutely. and the more we get over the entire question will the euro break up or not, as long as that happens we will have some more support in the euro which is not bad if you think about the quantitative easing we've seen in the eurozone and also inflation. that could be the co
in germany what you see is a reaction from the euro. we've been trading actually fairly strong all morning. 1.30 to 2.47. it was 1.32 42 before the numbers hit the wires. we have quite a bit of support for the euro because of the s.a.p. upgrade on greece and the situation over there. we'll see also the way the market is reacting. let's have a quick look at what the dax is doing. it's been perky, up 0.15%. trading toward the 7,665 level. >> patricia, this comes at a time when people have...
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Dec 6, 2012
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and if you look at, say, sorry to use germany constantly, but during the liquidity crunch in 2009, germany investment bank kfw was able to immediately double the amount of money that it was making available to smes when we had the liquidity crunch there. we didn't have a similar institution to do the same here in the uk. >> you could have fully nationalized rbs and then done what you like with it. if banks have to hold more capital, there is less money in the system. it seems to be a fact that politicians don't seem to recognize banks have to hold more cash, there is going to be less money in the economy. >> with the greatest of respect, we've got member of our financial policy committee, the committee at the bank of england that oversees financial stability who have said that is a bit of a red herring. and if that were the case, they wouldn't have seen the bonus paints that we've seen in the financial services sector as a whole during the time that they're supposed to be repairing their balance sheets. so i'm not sure i totally accept that. >> all right. thanks very much indeed for joinin
and if you look at, say, sorry to use germany constantly, but during the liquidity crunch in 2009, germany investment bank kfw was able to immediately double the amount of money that it was making available to smes when we had the liquidity crunch there. we didn't have a similar institution to do the same here in the uk. >> you could have fully nationalized rbs and then done what you like with it. if banks have to hold more capital, there is less money in the system. it seems to be a fact...
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Dec 3, 2012
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. >> i'm wondering whether germany as we look at -- they're just above sort of recession territory at the moment. i'm wondering whether if they get better growth out of asia, that will offset the weakness that they're seeing in europe enough to keep them above the pencil line. >> what we've seen so far with today's numbers is exports are declining very sharp. they'll need asia and the u.s. to offset some of that demand weakness, but again, the biggest market for most is the euro zone. if the eurozone is performing badly, that will have a thok-on effect for those countries. >> there's a number of strategists saying after the u.s. has sort of led equities for most of the year, they're now saying europe is the place to be. from i think really the question you have to ask yourself is when cash, equities, credit, government bonds, where do you want to be. and equity in my mind mind is absolutely not. you need good growth numbers to justify the equity markets going up. now, i think there's a lot of investors looking at the yields on ghoechlt bonds or credits and that's motivating them to mo
. >> i'm wondering whether germany as we look at -- they're just above sort of recession territory at the moment. i'm wondering whether if they get better growth out of asia, that will offset the weakness that they're seeing in europe enough to keep them above the pencil line. >> what we've seen so far with today's numbers is exports are declining very sharp. they'll need asia and the u.s. to offset some of that demand weakness, but again, the biggest market for most is the euro...
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Dec 27, 2012
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. >>> and germany's latest exports seems to be recession proof. it's a tradition dating back to the middle ages, but germany's christmas markets are more popular than ever. nbc's andy eckh artson sends this report. >> every december, music rix out across girlny's favorite christmas market. berlin alone hosts more than 80 markets, each with its own character where the sights, sounds and smells of christmas combine to keep your financial crisis at bay. >> we don't feel a crisis. when you look around here at the christmas market, you meet so different people from germany and it's so popular to come to berlin. christmas season is present season. >> over the past 20 years, germany's christmas markets have become a big attraction and big business. analysts estimate that the german christmas market industry brings in billions of dollars annually. for many small businesses and traditional craftsmen, the markets are the main source of income for the year. makia, one of only ten mammoth ivory carvers in germany has seen his annual turnover grow since 2003.
. >>> and germany's latest exports seems to be recession proof. it's a tradition dating back to the middle ages, but germany's christmas markets are more popular than ever. nbc's andy eckh artson sends this report. >> every december, music rix out across girlny's favorite christmas market. berlin alone hosts more than 80 markets, each with its own character where the sights, sounds and smells of christmas combine to keep your financial crisis at bay. >> we don't feel a...
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Dec 24, 2012
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you know, obviously core europe like germany will grow with the global economy here. but at the moment, because of the issues in japan and all the issues in the u.s., europe and particularly euro is the one to send out is the strong demand. this is something that european policies and that european companies will need to work with. >> next year, although the eurozone economy is stag nating, we do expect a recovery in the global economy to which europe corporate sector is very well levered. it's that recover in the global back drop which allows margins to rise a little bit in eurozone, gives some type line growth and overall profit growth we think of around 9%. >> standing out in 2013, the biggest uncertainty right now has to do with around the housing market in the united states. some people are increasing their belief that you're going to see growth in the housing market from, you know, previous estimates are like 1.5% to % or even 4%. that is the unknown. because as everybody knows, housing has so many secondary and tertiary effects, domino effects, positive effects
you know, obviously core europe like germany will grow with the global economy here. but at the moment, because of the issues in japan and all the issues in the u.s., europe and particularly euro is the one to send out is the strong demand. this is something that european policies and that european companies will need to work with. >> next year, although the eurozone economy is stag nating, we do expect a recovery in the global economy to which europe corporate sector is very well...
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Dec 17, 2012
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if germany was in deep recession right now, that will force their hand. but at the end of the day, the housing market has recovery, you know, you can build a convincing case that germany at some point will see reasonably strong growth. but i think the markets look forward. i think if we get a recovery occurring in the eurozone, nkts look forward to 2014 and beyond. >> spain? >> for sure. >> when? >> probably in the second quarter. >> that's an interesting idea, all at once. david owens from jeffries, thank you so much for stopping by. >>> straight ahead, economic policies for next year and what is in store for markets if it mean slower, short-term growth? can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground at fedex of. >>> shinzo abe wastes no time on calling on the bank of japan to ease interest rates. >>> get a little, g
if germany was in deep recession right now, that will force their hand. but at the end of the day, the housing market has recovery, you know, you can build a convincing case that germany at some point will see reasonably strong growth. but i think the markets look forward. i think if we get a recovery occurring in the eurozone, nkts look forward to 2014 and beyond. >> spain? >> for sure. >> when? >> probably in the second quarter. >> that's an interesting idea, all...
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Dec 13, 2012
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looking for confidence out of germany's ifo survey. if we can put it up on the screen, that would be a help as i'm working to get it up at the moment. as soon as we get the numbers on that front, i will bring them to you. looks like we're still waiting on that. in the meantime, send in your thoughts, questions and comments about the program to worldwide@cnbc.com. and the biggest news of the morning, we have a deal. after 14 hours of talkes and months of negotiations, an agreement has been reached on a pan european banking supervisor. european finance ministers say they've drawn up plans to allow the ecb to directly supervisor the three largest banks in each country except for the uk and sweden which have both opted out. european leaders need to give their seal of approval and silvia wadhwa is in brussels with the latest. sylvia, it sounds like the meeting went into the late hours of the night. it sounds like the uk and sweden got their way. how significant is this agreement? >> the early hours of the morning. one may wonder whether tha
looking for confidence out of germany's ifo survey. if we can put it up on the screen, that would be a help as i'm working to get it up at the moment. as soon as we get the numbers on that front, i will bring them to you. looks like we're still waiting on that. in the meantime, send in your thoughts, questions and comments about the program to worldwide@cnbc.com. and the biggest news of the morning, we have a deal. after 14 hours of talkes and months of negotiations, an agreement has been...
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Dec 10, 2012
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not made in japan, not made in germany, not made in china, not made in the u.s. made in the world. 60% of trading manufacturers is in some -- the import content of exports at rate worldwide was 20% years ago, is 40% now and might be 60% 20 years from now. so it's a totally different world from the one many people have in mind where, you know, your country was producing country which my country was consuming and this was a sort of relationship, hands, export this, import that. in this world, the global value changes. you need to import in order to export and use your competitive advantage. so it's a different pattern and i think this has consequences which most governments have, i think, not yet really realized, which is why we've launched this initiative together with the oecd to sort of measure trading at a value and we will probably be unveiling the first batch of trade in value added numbers mid january. our statistical missions are working extremely hard. these guys won't have a great christmas break, but i think that will look very, very, very difference fro
not made in japan, not made in germany, not made in china, not made in the u.s. made in the world. 60% of trading manufacturers is in some -- the import content of exports at rate worldwide was 20% years ago, is 40% now and might be 60% 20 years from now. so it's a totally different world from the one many people have in mind where, you know, your country was producing country which my country was consuming and this was a sort of relationship, hands, export this, import that. in this world, the...
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Dec 12, 2012
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germany's reluctance to hand over supervision of all of its banks to the ecb. france wants the central bank to have ultimate responsibility. that's not to mention demands from the u.k., sweden, and the netherlands which makes us have stuart richardson, still with us, whether the banking union thing's going to happen. if so, when? >> i think the move toward some sort of banking union is in progress here. it has been -- european, a work in progress. so it would appear that sweden was coming out of thing yesterday, the dave before -- day before, they're not backing the full union. germany wants limited banking union. >> does it matter -- how urgently do we need this in place? >> i think it's one of the key issues that needs to be resolved within the whole european project such as fiscal and political union. i think that the -- if they're going do it, they might as well do it right. as an investor, to me it's not that important for the next one or two months of equity performance, for example. if they don't start to really flesh out what the framework it in the cur
germany's reluctance to hand over supervision of all of its banks to the ecb. france wants the central bank to have ultimate responsibility. that's not to mention demands from the u.k., sweden, and the netherlands which makes us have stuart richardson, still with us, whether the banking union thing's going to happen. if so, when? >> i think the move toward some sort of banking union is in progress here. it has been -- european, a work in progress. so it would appear that sweden was coming...
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Dec 5, 2012
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germany and france finance ministers expressing deeply different views. meanwhile, in britain, the chancellor george osborne is expected to downgrade the country's growth prospects when he delivers his autumn budget statement. he will be moving his head to parliament. we'll be heading out to westminster in around 15 minutes. steve cedric will give us more detail on what to expect from that statement and how u.s. corporates might also be impacted as well. there's been a ba big row about how much they pay. what's that the takeaway from international investors? if you're an international investor into the uk, what's the most important thing? >> well, in terms of the uk, i think what's interesting is probably kind of the slip between an economy which is not going anywhere, hasn't gone anywhere the past couple years and the chancellor will have to revise down his growth projections. but the funding needs of the uk government probably haven't increased very much because of the raid on the bang of england and the facilities. so the announcement we had a couple w
germany and france finance ministers expressing deeply different views. meanwhile, in britain, the chancellor george osborne is expected to downgrade the country's growth prospects when he delivers his autumn budget statement. he will be moving his head to parliament. we'll be heading out to westminster in around 15 minutes. steve cedric will give us more detail on what to expect from that statement and how u.s. corporates might also be impacted as well. there's been a ba big row about how much...
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Dec 26, 2012
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in europe, the dax in germany is up and running. we are higher -- lower, rather, sorry, by half a percent. overnight in japan, the nikkei, that was higher. let's see the nikkei up about 1.5%. >>> now the holiday shopping season is drawing to a close. and early numbers suggest what started out strong is ending with a whimper. mastercard spending pulse unit estimate sales rose .7% over the past two months which would be the weakest pace since 2008 during the financial crisis. many analysts had expected sales to rise 3% to 4%. earlier we spoke with michael mcnamara from mastercard advisers about the impact the fiscal cliff may be having on consumers. listen in. >> beginning of december when we saw the sales numbers come down, confidence numbers come down. something the media coverage really has brought home and clarified what the fiscal cliff means to personal finance. and that debate really seems to be acting as -- almost creating a sense of gravity that's pulling down different elements of the economies. >> spending pulse says even o
in europe, the dax in germany is up and running. we are higher -- lower, rather, sorry, by half a percent. overnight in japan, the nikkei, that was higher. let's see the nikkei up about 1.5%. >>> now the holiday shopping season is drawing to a close. and early numbers suggest what started out strong is ending with a whimper. mastercard spending pulse unit estimate sales rose .7% over the past two months which would be the weakest pace since 2008 during the financial crisis. many...
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Dec 14, 2012
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over here in germany, the bund also benefiting. again, not the clearest picture of risk on and risk off. in fact, that may turn out to be one of the themes for 2013. finally, a quick look at the euro/dollar. 130.4 is the level there. the dollar/yen, adding another .2% to 83.80 this morning. >>> now, president obama and house speaker john boehner met at the white house last evening. aids say the men had a frank discussion. no specific details were released. this meeting came after a day of frustration in washington as both sides criticized each other for lack of progress. >> republicans want to solve this problem by getting the spending line down. the president wants to pretend the spending isn't a problem. that's why we don't have an agreement. >> speaker boehner can't ignore the american people forever. at some point, reality should set in. the only question is how much financial stress middle class families and our entire economy will have to endure during this process. >> well, the clock is ticking. so is a resolution before the
over here in germany, the bund also benefiting. again, not the clearest picture of risk on and risk off. in fact, that may turn out to be one of the themes for 2013. finally, a quick look at the euro/dollar. 130.4 is the level there. the dollar/yen, adding another .2% to 83.80 this morning. >>> now, president obama and house speaker john boehner met at the white house last evening. aids say the men had a frank discussion. no specific details were released. this meeting came after a day...
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Dec 4, 2012
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and in germany, angela merkel is officially launching her campaign for re-election. she's said to be wlauded for her solid leadership. the result is expected to set the stage for the federal poll national elections which take place in september. we'll talk about oracle returning cash to shareholders. plus it's just about time to break out your skis and head to the mountains. we'll find out what the financial forecast for the skiing results will be as full as they hope the slopes will be. people really love snapshot from progressive, but don't just listen to me. listen to these happy progressive customers. i plugged in snapshot, and 30 days later, i was saving big on car insurance. with snapshot, i knew what i could save before i switched to progressive. the better i drive, the more i save. i wish our company had something this cool. you're not filming this, are you? aw! camera shy. snapshot from progressive. test-drive snapshot before you switch. visit progressive.com today. >>> jobless claims increased by 1.5%, that pushed the total number of job seerks to 4.9 milli
and in germany, angela merkel is officially launching her campaign for re-election. she's said to be wlauded for her solid leadership. the result is expected to set the stage for the federal poll national elections which take place in september. we'll talk about oracle returning cash to shareholders. plus it's just about time to break out your skis and head to the mountains. we'll find out what the financial forecast for the skiing results will be as full as they hope the slopes will be. people...
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Dec 18, 2012
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. >>> turning to germany, regulators are set to hold off on a probe into the deutsche bank. they have no plan to investigate carbon dioxide certificates. patricia has this story for us. deutsche bank is going to avoid charges on that one? >> that's something we cannot say for certain, but i'm quoting sources in the "wall street journal." at the moment, they do not seem to have a closer look at the wrong doings or right doings. but here, the public prosecutors had that big raid last wednesday. but one thing for sure, it seems that last night in a speech mr. fitch was very much eating humble pie, almost being apologetic about the culture especially during the financial crisis or let's say during the run up to the financial crisis. he's talking about reform, the cue of deutsche bank going forward in a way trying to plead for more information. however, my question is, if you have management that has been with the bank for so many years like fitch himself and like andrew jane himself, it is difficult to convince anybody that all of a sudden culture is to change. if you look at se
. >>> turning to germany, regulators are set to hold off on a probe into the deutsche bank. they have no plan to investigate carbon dioxide certificates. patricia has this story for us. deutsche bank is going to avoid charges on that one? >> that's something we cannot say for certain, but i'm quoting sources in the "wall street journal." at the moment, they do not seem to have a closer look at the wrong doings or right doings. but here, the public prosecutors had that...
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Dec 20, 2012
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they were competing at the time against a bid from germany's deutsche bores. both of those offers ran up against tremendous scrutiny for u.s. and eu regulators. the euro nyse shares shot up 20%. >> how republicans plan to bring their tax bill to a vote today as tensions over fiscal cliff rise. it's still unclear what the plan b will look like. president obama says he will veto the bill, which has raced tax rates for people making more than $1 million a year. the president says he's puzzled by what's holding up talks and that house republicans should, quote, stop trying to score a point against hem. >> take the deal. you know, they will be able to claim that they have worked with me over the last two years to reduce the deficit more than any other deaf sigz reduction package, that we will have stabilized it for ten years. that is a significant achievement for them. she should be proud of it. but they continue to find ways to say no as opposed to saying yes. >> minority leader mitch mcconnell says there's still time to reach a deal by the end of the week. >> dan
they were competing at the time against a bid from germany's deutsche bores. both of those offers ran up against tremendous scrutiny for u.s. and eu regulators. the euro nyse shares shot up 20%. >> how republicans plan to bring their tax bill to a vote today as tensions over fiscal cliff rise. it's still unclear what the plan b will look like. president obama says he will veto the bill, which has raced tax rates for people making more than $1 million a year. the president says he's...